DRIVERS OF CARBON EMISSION REDUCTION IN ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT: AN EXPERT-BASED ANALYTIC HIERARCHY PROCESS

Abstract

Carbon emission reduction poses a growing challenge for subnational governments that must reconcile economic growth with climate commitments under conditions of limited data and constrained resources. Provincial policymakers, therefore, require transparent tools to prioritize emission reduction drivers that reflect local institutional, technological, and social contexts. This study applies an expert-based analytic hierarchy process to identify and rank the key drivers of carbon emission reduction in Thai Nguyen Province, Vietnam, within the context of provincial economic development. An analytic hierarchy process comprising the overall goal, five main criteria, and twenty subcriteria was constructed. Pairwise comparison judgments were collected from 15 experts representing government, enterprises, and academia during July – August, 2025. The results indicate that institutions and public governance (weight = 0.292), community and society (0.250), and science, technology, and human resources (0.202) are the most influential dimensions. At the subcriterion level, policy implementation and enforcement, research and development infrastructure, community environmental awareness, and clean technology adoption emerge as the highest priorities. The priority structure is highly concentrated, with the top-ranked drivers accounting for more than 70% of total importance. This study presents a replicable decision-support framework for designing provincial low-carbon policies and provides transferable insights for other subnational contexts in emerging economies.